Dialling up the cooling conversation at COP29

The Conference of Parties (COP) 29 has brought to the forefront the pressing need for action over negotiations. In India, we are dealing with some hard realities of global warming: Atmospheric heat is on the rise while our ambitious economic growth will increase cooling demand. Meeting cooling demand using traditional individual air conditioning units leads to greater energy consumption, greater emissions, and greater heat. Increasing emissions and related pollution is already impacting the health of citizens in Indian metros and forcing them to stay indoors. The government’s approach of coaxing industry to follow greening guidelines will fall short in the long-run. Industry is equally to blame — focusing on short term profitability at the cost of long term irreparable ecological loss. Consumers are also at fault — lacking awareness of the cost of their personal choices, when alternatives exist. We must, therefore, bring cooling to the forefront in conversations on finding new ways to meet our climate targets, at Baku and beyond.

Global temperature in 2023 were the highest recorded since 1850. In 2024 India experienced the longest duration of heatwaves lasting around 24 days in various parts of the country. Heatwaves that are getting longer, hotter, and more humid, impact basic human survival by creating wet bulb temperatures that can cause hyperthermia. Heat also impacts Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and productivity; estimates suggest India could suffer a 24.7% GDP loss by 2070 due to decreasing labour productivity from rising heat, amongst other climate change related issues. Increasing heat leads to an increase in the demand for cooling, which if met with traditional air conditioning methods will increase energy demand to a degree that many states in India are not even projected to meet. Energy consumption from cooling is estimated to account for 45% of peak energy demand by 2050. Air-conditioner penetration currently at 8% is estimated to reach 40% by 2038. Direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions from air conditioning and refrigeration are projected to rise 90% by the year 2050 (from 2017 levels).

The need to re-think conventional methods of cooling centred on individual air-conditioning units is most urgent. A systems’ thinking, life cycle view with a “platform-based approach” to cooling must be considered in infrastructure development plans. New technologies such as District Cooling (DC) that aggregate demand, and take a centralised approach to production and distribution of cooling, can drastically decrease the quantum of cooling equipment and power demand required. The Cooling as a Service (CaaS) model allows for a utility approach in meeting wider cooling needs, which can save up to 25% of cooling costs for customers on a lifecycle basis. Adopting DC enables a systems approach to cooling, enabling integration with: green building elements or passive cooling features to minimise cooling demand of the building; on-site technology innovations such as radiant or evaporative cooling that reduce dependence on the mechanical processes; the mechanical system itself which may rely on vapor compression cooling technologies or absorption or even adsorption technologies; and finally, ancillary technologies for sourcing water (sewage treatment plants) and energy (clean renewable energy through captive plants or waste energy from waste to energy or power plants) to create circular systems. This can be further coupled with emerging innovations in automation (AI/IoT), mechanical efficiency (desiccants and solid-state technologies), heat exchange (additives and nanoparticles), thermal storage (phase change material) to ensure a 40-60% reduction in emissions, energy consumption compared to the current way in which we cool the spaces we occupy, including homes and offices.

At the institutional level, India is developing research and action around cooling. The India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP) released in 2019, includes DC amongst the basket of solutions for the future. However, little progress has been made thus far, with the focus more on short-term recommendations relating to standard and labelling programs for energy conservation in buildings. At a regional level, cities and states in India are developing heat action plans to address increasing heat, as well as cooling plans towards mitigative efforts, but they are still largely reactive in nature with short term adaptation goals. Without long-term mitigation concepts where the thinking is beyond only conventional emission reduction, the lag between research, policy and uptake of action will cost us in the long-run. The burden lies equally among three key stakeholder groups.

• Government policy needs more teeth. As the current developer approach focusses on cost effective technology for the short-term, the government needs to take a long-term systems’ approach – analysing cooling needs and demand alongside associated power demand and costs, water availability, health and other planetary considerations. Basis such analysis, zoning and other mandates can be introduced towards more sustainable cooling.
• The developer community and private sector is another key stakeholder where greater knowledge building is required. Knowledge on both the perils of inaction, as well as the opportunity for adopting technologies and business models that will benefit their businesses in the long-run.
• Consumers as a stakeholder group must be made more aware and empowered to demand better, more sustainable cooling solutions.

The focus on transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is a small portion of a larger, complex reality of our times – balancing economic growth with planetary and ecological needs. India needs economic growth to bring millions out of poverty, needs infrastructure growth to improve access, and needs ecological balance for survival. It is time to make the conversation more about the practicalities of achieving all of this, all at once. Cooling is a growing necessity, and yet it is still considered a luxury in most parts of India. It is possible to meet this need in a sustainable fashion. This will require long-term thinking that runs parallel with immediate actions.

This article is authored by Sudheer Perla, managing director, Tabreed Asia, and Priyanka Bhide, co-founder, Kubernein Initiative and was originally published in Hindustan Times in November 2024.